VAT compliance gap due to Missing Trader IntraCommunity (MTIC) fraud – Final report: phase 1

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18 Mar 2024

Fiscal Policies and Growth

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Adam Śmietanka

Agnieszka Skowronek

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Adam Śmietanka

Economist
Adam Śmietanka is an Economist at CASE. His areas of expertise include data analysis, data visualization, web scraping, and inflation measurement. At CASE, Mr. Śmietanka is responsible for conducting data analysis, economic research, and developing and maintaining CASE’s online monthly consumer price index. His professional experience includes an internship with PwC’s Advisory Team and a … <a href="https://case.dev10.pro/publications/vat-compliance-gap-due-to-missing-trader-intracommunity-mtic-fraud-final-report-phase-1/">Continued</a>

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Author’s articles
Agnieszka Skowronek

Economist
Agnieszka holds a Master’s degree in Economic Policy from Utrecht University and a Bachelor’s degree in Econometrics and Information Technology from the University of Warsaw. With interdisciplinary interests, they have additionally undertaken coursework in Gender and Postcolonial Studies. Agnieszka’s research interests include unpaid care work, income inequality, alternative solutions in the field of social welfare, … <a href="https://case.dev10.pro/publications/vat-compliance-gap-due-to-missing-trader-intracommunity-mtic-fraud-final-report-phase-1/">Continued</a>

Articles from this author:
- Global value chains: Potential synergies between external trade policy and internal economic initiatives to address the strategic dependencies of the EU
  Global value chains enable two-thirds of international trade, notably for the EU. The EU wants to preserve its commercial links with third countries and organisations to make up for trade disruptions. This study examines sustainable supply of raw materials, commodities, and critical goods using the EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy concept. It examines which raw material … Continued

The phenomenon of Missing Trader Intra-Community fraud (MTIC fraud) stands out as a significant form of VAT fraud. In this scheme, a fraudulent trader sells goods and services to other businesses, collects the VAT from customers, and then vanishes without remitting it to tax authorities. Despite variations in assessments of its exact scale, both revealed cases of fraud and various studies concur that MTIC fraud constitutes a notable portion of the overall VAT compliance gap.

This study sheds light on the potential for estimating the MTIC gap in the EU and its Member States through available analytical methods and data sources. These estimates could complement the yearly published estimates of the overall VAT compliance gap by the European Commission.

After assessing available methodologies and conducting experimental work, it becomes evident that the methodology utilizing Intra-Community trade data appears most suitable for this calculation among publicly available data-driven approaches. This method operates under the assumption that every fraudulent transaction eventually leaves a trace in trade data. Its implementation could leverage sophisticated econometric techniques and machine learning algorithms. Therefore, this approach is recommended as the baseline calculation method for the next phase of the study.

Additionally, it is advisable to explore and, if feasible, implement another promising approach based on Member State administrative data. This alternative approach relies on granular data from VIES (VAT Information Exchange System) and VAT returns, offering potential insights into MTIC fraud.

This report was written by a team of experts from CASE (Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw) directed by Grzegorz Poniatowski, and composed of Adam Śmietanka, Agnieszka Skowronek and Aleksandra Sojka. Research assistance was provided by Krzysztof Orzechowski.

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VAT compliance gap due to Missing Trader IntraCommunity (MTIC) fraud – Final report: phase 1

Adam Śmietanka

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Agnieszka Skowronek

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