Independent analysis of the tobacco market

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6 Feb 2025

Jan Hagemejer

Jan Hagemejer

Macroeconomics and Trade Director
Jan Hagemejer’s areas of expertise are international trade as well as macroeconomic and structural issues. He graduated from University of Warsaw where he also obtained his PhD and habilitation, as well as from Purdue University (MA in Economics). He works as an associate professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. Prior to … <a href="https://case.dev10.pro/media_post/jan-hagemejer-in-a-aebate-on-the-future-of-the-tobacco-market-in-puls-biznesu/">Continued</a>

Media from this author:
- Jan Hagemejer in PAP Mediaroom
- Jan Hagemejer: The Retirement Age Must Adjust to Demographics
  A decreasing number of people in the working-age population, increasing tax burdens, and an aging society – these are key challenges for the Polish pension system. According to Professor Jan Hagemejer, president of the CASE think tank and lecturer at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw, one solution could be linking the retirement age to life expectancy. The expert points out that the current demographic situation leads to increasing burdens on the working population, which may result in the need to raise taxes or reduce benefits.

In 2023, the value of the market for traditional tobacco products in Poland will amount to PLN 42.9 billion, of which cigarettes will account for PLN 40.2 billion, according to analyses conducted by Dr Jan Hagemejer, President at CASE – Centre for Social and Economic Research.

The ever-increasing share of novelty products and changing excise policies are key factors shaping the future of the tobacco market. – The market share of novelty products, whose sales have grown dynamically in recent years and whose prices will rise more slowly than those of traditional products, is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, government policies, driven not only by the need to maximise budget revenues but also by the social costs of tobacco consumption, are expected to aim at gradually reducing the total sales of all tobacco products,” says Dr Jan Hagemejer.

CASE’s robust analyses also take into account the impact of excise policy on the market and consumer behaviour. Differences in excise rates between EU countries encourage cross-border shopping, which was particularly evident in Poland, which had the second lowest excise rates in the EU. – A certain proportion of domestic sales were purchases from abroad, including purchases in areas near the borders with the Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia, CASE President explained.

The government’s excise policy tries to balance budgetary needs and health objectives, but its dynamic changes affect companies’ strategies. – Recent changes in excise policy reflect both objectives. It is worth noting, however, that the time allowed to adapt to the new regulations was very short, which is important both in terms of short-term adjustments to formal requirements and medium-term employment and investment policies of companies, notes Dr Jan Hagemejer.

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Independent analysis of the tobacco market

Jan Hagemejer

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